The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm
mae 0.40 0.37 0.42 0.38
cor 0.92 0.93 0.91 0.93
ratio_of_sd 0.91 0.96 0.91 0.96
KGE 0.88 0.92 0.88 0.92
amplitude_mae 0.85 0.64 0.82 0.68
maximum_difference 5.30 4.77 5.40 4.85
sign_correlation 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72
extreme_correlation 0.59 0.68 0.59 0.62
qqplot_mae 0.10 0.06 0.10 0.04
acf_mae 0.09 0.05 0.08 0.05
extremogram_mae 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.03

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97